Robert Hargrove

Bush Ignored the Law of Unintended Consequences

I can remember sitting at a Renaissance Conference almost five years ago before the war in Iraq began, listening to army generals with the wisdom of Solomon offer deep caution about going into Iraq. “Beware of the law of unintended consequences,” they cautioned. “Going to war will create a breeding ground for terrorists with a chip on their shoulders, as well as kindle secular disputes.”

It seemed to me so obvious that declaring a war against Iraq would result in more terrorism in the world—and it has, together with tremendous loss of life of both USA military personal and Iraqis people. On the day I wrote this the headlines I read: 100’s killed in Iraq by blasts, 104 US forces killed in April.

The Bush administration has created a phenomenal disaster. In the months to come, the President will no doubt receive all kind of advice about how to resolve the situation: regional diplomatic conferences, power sharing deals, partitioning of the country, plans to increase or diminish the number of USA troops there.

While experts may brilliantly argue each of the above alternatives, they seem to be blind to one key factor—the expectation of a rational, cooperative reaction from the Iraqis. According to one CIA official, the level of violence has become satanic.

As the violence increases, the center cannot hold (whether you look at the center as the USA military or the Iraqi government) and the pressures on the Iraqi people are mounting. For example, it is impossible to get your teeth fixed in Baghdad as all of the dentists have left. On the eve of the second USA invasion, who would have thought this would have been one of the unintended consequences.

The average Joe’s quest for survival is causing normal people to act like extremists and actually strengthening warring tribes. If you are a resident in Baghdad, the most logical response is to seek protection from one of the militias, Al Qaeda if you are Sunni, the Mahdi if you are a Shiite. No matter how many troops we send it, it will be years before we see any real progress.

Like the war in Iraq or not, the purpose of which was to end terrorism appears to be lost. What good is a nuclear submarine, tank, or platoon of soldiers against a terrorist ready to blow himself up in a marketplace because he sees this as a way to a better afterlife or hates the occupation of his country.

The Bush administration needs to face reality and declare that the war in Iraq cannot be won (and certainly not the peace) by military means. Instead of thinking about how to win, the President and his team need to brainstorm how to creatively withdraw, while still holding the line against Islamic extremism. For example: bring the troops home, but maintain Special Forces in Iraq with a quick strike capability, poised to attack against Al Qaeda operations on a regular basis.